Thursday, September 9, 2010
Risk Modeling
| The level of
risk
associated
with any activity is related to how often adverse events
occur (frequency),
and their severity (consequences).
This figure shows a typical illustration of these key aspects.
Usually, if high consequence events are happening fairly
often (quadrant B), then an active management approach is
taken whereby the authorities do their utmost to eliminate
or mitigate the risk. For high consequence, rare events
(such as the sinking of a passenger vessel), expert opinion
is usually relied upon to assess and quantify the risk factors (quadrant D).
For more frequent low-level occurrences (quadrant A), sufficient data
is often available to perform the assessments quantitatively.
All of these levels of risk must be included in a comprehensive
model, as they are in MARIS.
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The MARIS
model incorporates databases on the different types and
frequency of maritime activities, the incidents resulting
from them, and the associated response measures when problems
arise. The green boxes in the figure below highlight some of the sources of
information used in the various model components. Incident
data has been collected from several agencies including
the Canadian Coast Guard Search and Rescue (SAR),
the Transportation Safety Board (TSB),
the Water Incident Research Alliance (WIRA),
and the Red Cross. Agencies that provide incident response
include the Canadian Coast Guard SAR,
the Department of National Defence (DND),
the RCMP, and the Civil Air Rescue Emergency Service (CASARA).
All of these are fed into the MARIS
risk models, the results of which can be used for improved
prevention programs or regulations, as well as planning
for improved response.
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